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Is a Beat in Store for Norfolk Southern (NSC) in Q4 Earnings?

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Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Jan 26, before market open.

The company has a disappointing earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missing twice, the average miss being 0.99%.

Norfolk Southern Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

Norfolk Southern Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Norfolk Southern Corporation price-eps-surprise | Norfolk Southern Corporation Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up for NSC this earnings season.

Q4 Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.11 billion, indicating a 3.9% decline from the year-ago reported level. The top line is likely to have been weighed down by below-par performances of all three key segments — Merchandise, Intermodal and Coal. Softness in overall volumes due to headwinds like weak freight conditions, supply-chain woes and slower network velocity is hurting the top line.

On the flip side, NSC’s bottom line continues to grapple with high expenses. The recent negotiations with various labor groups are also likely to have pushed labor costs higher. High debt acts as another headwind. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised downward by 3.33 % in the past 90 days.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Norfolk Southern this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Norfolk Southern has an Earnings ESP of +0.09% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Highlights of Q3

Norfolk Southern’s  third-quarter 2023 earnings (excluding 55 cents from non-recurring items) of $2.65 per share lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.74. The bottom line contracted 35.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Railway operating revenues were $2,971 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,942.3 million. Yet, the top line decreased 11.1% year over year, with all key segments, including Merchandise, Intermodal and Coal registering deterioration in revenues.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a other few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on their fourth-quarter 2023 earnings.

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +43.10% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. AAL will release results on Jan 25.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings has been revised upward by more than 100% in the past 90 days. AAL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 23.83%, on average.

Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.47% and currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. CPA will release results on Feb 7. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPA’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings has been revised upward by 5.1% in the past 90 days.  CPA delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 16.81%, on average.

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation, operating as Wabtec Corporation (WAB - Free Report) , presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.85% and a Zacks Rank #2. WAB will release results on Feb 14.

WAB has an expected earnings growth rate of 20.77% for fourth-quarter 2023. WAB delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.11%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s fourth-quarter 2023 earnings has improved 3.3% over the past 90 days.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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